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November 19, 2019
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Are Bitcoin and Other Cryptos Back in a Bear Market After Latest Drop?

On Nov. Eight, Bitcoin corrected from $9,200 to $Eight,650, inflicting the market sentiment to shift from greed to concern as soon as extra. 

The correction got here after one of many greatest surges in the historical past of Bitcoin (BTC), which makes the sentiment shift curious. Let’s take a take a look at the market overview and analyze the charts.

Crypto Market Daily Data View. Source: Coin360

Bitcoin loses 200-Day Moving Average as a key indicator

The current correction made Bitcoin value lose the 200-Day Moving Average (MA), which is a key indicator for a lot of merchants and traders who depend on it to find out bear/bull market cycles. 

BTC USD 1-day chartBTC USD 1-day chart. Source: Buying and sellingView 

Remarkably, the value surged above the 200-Day MA, hovered beneath the resistance at $9,400-9,600 and retraced again right down to the following horizontal assist degree at $Eight,600-Eight,800, which can be the 200-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), one other narrative and indicator. 

At this degree, the value is seemingly discovering assist, no less than in the intervening time. 

However, the 200-Day MA was misplaced by this correction, inflicting the sentiment to shift from greed to concern. The reasoning for this comes from historic knowledge, which reveals that Bitcoin by no means dropped beneath this indicator in current market cycles (instance: 2016 to December 2017). 

Key indicators nonetheless taking form

Of course, because the well-known saying goes: Past efficiency is not any assure of future outcomes. 

The indicators are nonetheless forming if that is the start of a new bull market cycle. In different phrases, the value nonetheless has to search out assist on EMAs/MAs, which may then change into main indicators. 

Previous examples of comparisons with earlier market cycles didn’t maintain up both, which had been the 21-Week MA and the utmost correction of 40% that Bitcoin has seen in any bull market (the current drawdown was 47%). 

From that perspective, analyzing the macro view is unquestionably extra useful as a substitute of drawing comparisons to historic actions, particularly on shorter timeframes. 

BTC USD 12-hour chart

BTC USD 12-hour chart. Source: Buying and sellingView

As seen in the chart, the value moved in direction of necessary horizontal assist and one of many few areas that should maintain to maintain a bull market. 

The value has been transferring in a downward channel for the reason that high in June, which implies that the value is bearish in the near-term, although the value of Bitcoin continues to be up 187% since December 2018.

It is crucial that one in every of these inexperienced zones round $Eight,600-Eight,800 holds as assist. Though a wick in direction of $Eight,300 can nonetheless happen as a backtest of that assist degree. Dropping beneath this mark, then again, would trigger the value to lose the trendline and possible end result in a new low below $7,300. 

But if Bitcoin manages to carry these ranges, a assist/resistance flip will come into play and a bullish breakout in December might happen. The goal to purpose for then is $10,800. 

Total market capitalization present backside indicators

Total Crypto Market Capitalization 1-day chartTotal Crypto Market Capitalization 1-day chart. Source: Tradingview

The whole market capitalization nonetheless reveals backside indicators displaying the primary bullish divergence on the each day for the reason that low in December 2018. Moreover, a breakout of the falling wedge additionally occurred with assist affirmation in the inexperienced space, which is the $180-200 billion degree.

On the opposite hand, the numerous order block round $260 billion continues to be appearing as a heavy resistance, just like Bitcoin on the $9,600 degree. 

Total crypto market capitalization 4-hour chart

Total crypto market capitalization Four-hour chart. Source: Tradingview

Lower timeframe charts present related indicators as the upper timeframe charts. No clear breakthrough in the purple order block and resistance space as the value cleared the smaller resistance zone at $220-225 billion. 

While there hasn’t been any backtest of this degree but — there’s a good probability it’s now prone to happen. As lengthy because the market is ready to maintain this necessary assist degree at $220-225 billion, resistance might once more flip into assist and begin aiming for larger grounds (probably breaking $260 billion and aiming for $350 billion).

Altcoin market cap consolidating on larger grounds

Total Altcoin Market Capitalization 1-day chart

Total Altcoin Market Capitalization 1-day chart. Source: Tradingview

The altcoin market capitalization can be changing into attention-grabbing because it reveals the completion of a Four-month downtrend. This breakout is just like the actions the market has seen previous to this yr when a main downtrend was damaged in January as nicely. 

What adopted after the breakout? A interval of range-bound actions, which will also be seen as accumulation. Similar actions will also be seen right here because the market is transferring inside a slim vary, suggesting that a large transfer is in the works.

It is essential for altcoin market capitalization to carry the $66 billion degree as an necessary marker and assist. Losing that degree would give house to actions beneath $50 billion and would delete the pattern of upper lows — a necessary sample for a bull market. 

If the $66 billion degree holds, the goal of $90 billion will likely be key to look at for in the upcoming weeks. 

Is Bitcoin dominance prepared for a breakdown?

Bitcoin Dominance 1-day chart

Bitcoin Dominance 1-day chart. Source: Tradingview

Interestingly sufficient, whereas Bitcoin is correcting, Ether (ETH) has been exhibiting robust indicators in the ETH/BTC pair. Ether value motion can be indicating that Bitcoin dominance is faltering, although it’s nonetheless not trying fully bearish but. 

Trendlines have a decrease impact on the Bitcoin dominance chart, so for full affirmation of downwards bias, it has to interrupt beneath 68% dominance. If that happens, possible targets are then 62-63%. 

Crypto winter coming or autumn shakeout?

So is the cryptocurrency market again in a bear market with Bitcoin dropping the 200-Day MA? 

The easy reply is not any.

Macro smart, the market has been transferring upwards all yr and really supplied a vital return since January. However, some key ranges have to carry in order to maintain the macro bullish perspective. In different phrases, Bitcoin going beneath $7,300 could be a bearish signal for the complete crypto market. 

Holding above $Eight,300 would renew bullish sentiment and possible create a potential “buy the dip” situation in which BTC can then make its transfer in direction of $11,000 and larger. 

The views and opinions expressed listed here are solely these of the writer and don’t essentially mirror the views of Cointelegraph. Every funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger. You ought to conduct your personal analysis when making a choice.

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