US DOLLAR OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK: FOMC RATE CUT ODDS IN FOCUS WITH ECONOMIC DATA & TRADE WAR HEADLINES EXPECTED
- The US Dollar staged a formidable comeback this week which erased almost half of final month’s draw back that pushed the DXY Index to its lowest stage since August 09
- USD worth motion faces severe occasion threat subsequent week like CPI and retail gross sales information releases that can probably weigh on FOMC fee lower expectations along with US-China commerce rhetoric
- USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/MXN, AUD/USD, NZD/USD and GBP/USD are the most important US Dollar foreign money pairs that seem liable to experiencing heighted volatility subsequent week
The US Dollar edged greater during the last 5 buying and selling days and has pushed the DXY Index – a popularly referenced basket of main USD foreign money pairs – to its strongest stage since mid-October. Broadly talking, Friday’s extension to the upside will be defined by falling FOMC fee lower odds and counterpart weak point.
I famous within the earlier US Dollar Price Volatility Report that USD worth motion stood to reply overwhelmingly to the newest US-China commerce conflict headlines and shopper sentiment information. US President Trump’s tariff remarks, which contradicted previous feedback from the White House, ended up dominating markets and overshadowed shopper sentiment.
US DOLLAR INDEX PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (APRIL 11, 2019 TO NOVEMBER 08, 2019)
The US Dollar is at the moment gravitating across the mid-point retracement of final month’s bearish leg and its 50-day easy transferring common, which have potential to maintain a lid on additional advances. Moreover, there may be fairly a little bit of confluent resistance between the 98.25-98.50 worth zone highlighted by September’s consolidation and notable swing highs printed again in August, May and April.
Though optimistic divergence indicated by the RSI and MACD are encouraging technical indicators for USD bulls because the Greenback’s rebound builds momentum. Beyond the 98.50 space, the 61.eight% Fibonacci retracement of the US Dollar’s buying and selling vary since its October 01 swing excessive along with the 99.00 deal with come into focus as potential upside targets. Looking decrease, the US Dollar may take pleasure in technical assist offered by its 38.2% Fib close to the 97.75 worth stage.
FOMC RATE CUT EXPECTATIONS (MARCH 2020)
USD worth motion will probably be pushed predominantly by modifications in FOMC fee lower expectations, which stand to fluctuate in response to high-influence financial information releases and US-China commerce speak progress. From a macro perspective, readings on the US financial system proceed to point out indicators of enchancment and will facilitate the Fed’s firming financial coverage outlook seemingly communicated on the October Fed assembly. Though nonetheless accommodative, FOMC language shifted to a less-dovish tone concerning its strategy to creating future rate of interest selections.
Correspondingly, the chance of one other 25-bps FOMC fee lower at its subsequent assembly has plummeted from roughly 30% to lower than 10% during the last week in line with the in a single day swaps information. At the identical time, the chance that the Fed stays on maintain into subsequent yr continues to climb. There is at the moment a 69.1% chance that the FOMC will depart its coverage rate of interest unchanged by means of its March 2020 assembly, which is up significantly from the 38.1% chance priced in on October 31.
US DOLLAR IMPLIED VOLATILITY & TRADING RANGES (1-WEEK)
US Dollar implied volatility seems to be suppressed general headed into subsequent week. This appears uncommon contemplating the barrage of financial information and occasion threat forward with severe potential to weigh on USD worth motion. First and foremost, the newest US inflation report shall be launched with October CPI figures set to cross the wires November 13 at 12:30 GMT. Secondly, retail gross sales information for October is anticipated November 15 at 12:30 GMT. NZD/USD is anticipated to be probably the most risky US Dollar foreign money pair subsequent week with a 1-week options-implied volatility of eight.39%, which compares to its 20-day common studying of seven.34% and ranks within the prime 70th percentile of measurements taken during the last 12-months.
The above-average 1-week implied volatility studying for NZD/USD is greater than probably as a result of the truth that the newest RBNZ fee choice and financial coverage assertion launch are anticipated subsequent week. Meanwhile, USD/MXN 1-week implied volatility of seven.61% ranks within the backside 5th percentile of readings regardless of the newest rate of interest choice from Mexico’s central financial institution on faucet. Likewise, AUD/USD implied volatility of 6.17% might be low if Aussie employment information and/or US-China commerce conflict headlines catch merchants off-guard, although the zero.6800 and zero.6900 handles will look to maintain AUD/USD worth motion comparatively contained.
USD/CAD implied volatility of four.25% might be underpriced by foreign exchange choices merchants as properly if the Loonie selloff accelerates subsequent week following the disappointing Canadian jobs report not too long ago launched. Also, GBP/USD will probably fall beneath foreign exchange merchants’ crosshairs in gentle of UK GDP and CPI figures due subsequent week whereas British MPs marketing campaign forward of the upcoming snap election aimed toward breaking the Brexit gridlock. Options-implied buying and selling ranges are calculated utilizing 1-standard deviation (i.e. 68% statistical chance worth motion is contained throughout the implied buying and selling vary over the required time-frame).
US DOLLAR SKEW (25-DELTA ATM RISK REVERSAL) (1-WEEK)
Forex choices merchants give the impression of a combined bias on the US Dollar subsequent week judging by 1-week USD threat reversals. USD/JPY, AUD/USD and NZD/USD catch the attention contemplating that the skew readings for all three of those USD foreign money pairs fall of their respective prime 90th percentiles of measurements taken during the last 12-months.
A threat reversal studying above zero signifies that the demand for name choice volatility (upside safety) exceeds that of put choice volatility (draw back safety). For extra perception on market positioning and bullish or bearish biases, merchants can flip to the IG Client Sentiment information, which is up to date in real-time and covers a number of foreign money pairs, commodities, and fairness indices.
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