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Manchester
November 21, 2019
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Forex

Crude Oil Prices May Fall as Markets Weigh Weekend Headline Risk

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil costs shrug off EIA information, eyeing Tropical Storm Nestor
  • Gold costs unmoved by Brexit deal as UK parliament vote looms
  • De-risking could ensue as traders trim publicity earlier than weekend

Crude oil costs shrugged off EIA information exhibiting inventories added a hefty 9.28 million barrels final week, topping forecasts calling for a extra modest 2.49 million rise. The final result could have been priced in already courtesy of a main projection from API, sapping its market-moving potential.

Worries about provide disruption within the Gulf of Mexico then appeared to encourage a tepid rise into the session shut. Gains had been accompanied by experiences that Tropical Storm Nestor was taking form alongside Mexico’s east coast and may start to threaten US power infrastructure over the weekend.

Goutdated costs stalled in the intervening time. The metallic edged initially decrease as the UK and EU agreed on a Brexit deal however the transfer was short-lived as markets contemplated its sensible viability. The accord could also be made moot if it may’t get handed within the UK parliament, the place opposition from the DUP mayimply sure doom.

CRUDE OIL MAY FALL AS MARKETS TURN DEFENSIVE INTO WEEK-END

Looking forward, a quiet information docket may clear the way in which for a pullback in sentiment-linked belongings as shorter-term market individuals mitigate weekend threat. Much can occur – from a rejection of the Brexit deal by UK MPs to the unraveling of US-China commerce talks – earlier than the APAC opening bell on Monday.

With that in thoughts, merchants may transfer to carry portfolios nearer to impartial. In the context of broadly risk-on tilt on show to this point this week, which may quantity to weak point for cycle-sensitive crude oil. Gold costs may edge up if a defensive backdrop interprets into decrease bond yields.

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold costs broke help guiding them greater since late May. It is unclear at this level whether or not the following uneven pullback marks a sluggish begin to an rising downtrend or the formation of a bullish Flag continuation sample. A day by day shut beneath 1480.00 exposes the 1439.14-46.94 space. Alternatively, a push above resistance at 1535.03 targets the 1557.10-63.00 zone (September excessive, weekly chart inflection stage).

Gold value chart created utilizing TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil costs are marking time above vary help within the 49.41-50.60 space. A break downward confirmed on a day by day closing foundation brings three-year lows within the 42.00-43.00 area into view. Alternatively, a push above October 11 excessive at 54.93 units the stage to problem a busy resistance bloc extending up via 60.84.

Crude oil price chart - daily

Crude oil value chart created utilizing TradingView

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the feedback part beneath or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

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