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November 19, 2019
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GBP, SEK, NOK Brace for Brexit Drama Ahead of EU Summit

Brexit, GBP Outlook, Swedish Krona, Norwegian Krone – TALKING POINTS

  • GBP braces for EU summit because the October 31 deadline approaches
  • Swedish Krona, Norwegian Krone might oscillate with British Pound
  • IMF, World Bank reviews, Q3 company earnings might spook markets

Learn use political-risk evaluation in your buying and selling technique!

The Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone together with the British Pound might be in for a risky week forward of main geopolitical uncertainty within the United Kingdom. Volatile Brexit drama continues to be mirrored in Sterling, as seen in final week’s value transfer the place EUR/GBP erased an over 20-day ascension in simply 24 hours. This week, the cycle-sensitive NOK and SEK may convulse alongside the Pound amid the pandemonium.

Brexit: British Pound Traders Coil up For Political Volatility

On Monday, Queen Elizabeth II will open a brand new session of parliament the place she will even define Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s new legislative agenda. Lawmakers in Parliament will scrutinize and debate the PM’s plans, with hypothesis that it may result in a vote of no confidence and even a attainable snap election. But the true occasion threat to observe for the week within the context of Brexit would be the EU summit.

Between October 17-18, EU and UK officers might be getting into an intense section of negotiations because the October 31 deadline approaches. Last week, Mr. Johnson and his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar spoke and gave Sterling a lift after the latter stated he sees a path ahead with Brexit. The concern over the Irish backstop has been the most important tie-up in Brexit negotiations, so progress on that key entrance left merchants rejoicing.

However, diplomats from each side have expressed doubt significant deal will be made by the tip of the week. EU Council President Donald Tusk has stated that the UK has “nonetheless not come ahead with a workable, lifelike proposal” regardless of time operating out. Throughout the week, buyers and the Pound will each be coiling up, able to pounce in both course ought to a pathway ahead to a deal be obstructed or opened up additional.

US-China Trade War: What’s Happening?

Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump introduced over Twitter that China will instantly begin buying agricultural merchandise from the US. He additionally stated Washington will delay imposing tariffs set for October 15, citing that “Phase One” of the commerce settlement is almost full and they’re going to begin “Phase Two” shortly after.

Markets appeared little-moved by the information, which suggests they could be ready for one thing extra substantial from each side. Given the erratic diplomatic exchanges between the US and China, this doesn’t come as a shock that buyers are maybe ready for one thing to be put in writing earlier than they put their cash on the road.

Equities, Commodities Brace for Global Growth Updates, Corporate Earnings

Market volatility may be exacerbated this week by a cascade of third quarter company earnings reviews together with a sequence of conferences and conferences with the IMF and World Bank. Last week, the newly-appointed IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the world is experiencing a “synchronized slowdown” amid strained worldwide commerce tensions.

This week, she is anticipated to hold the identical gloomy undertones at an annual assembly in Washington DC. World Bank President David Malpass will even preside over the occasion with different key figures resembling Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates and David Solomon of Goldman Sachs. The Institute of International Finance will even be holding its annual membership assembly on with key officers whose feedback might spark volatility.

Sweden Unemployment Data

While information out of Norway is sparse for the week, Sweden might be publishing its unemployment charge for September with an estimate of 6.7 p.c, barely decrease than the earlier 7.1 p.c determine. Riksbank policymakers are rising more and more anxious that they could not be capable of squeeze of their deliberate charge hike for this 12 months in opposition to the backdrop of Brexit, worldwide commerce tensions and lackluster Eurozone progress.

USD/SEK Technical Analysis

USD/SEK is struggling to interrupt above the 9.8163-9.8389 resistance vary whereas flirting with the higher lip of the rising help zone (crimson parallel channel). A break beneath it with follow-through may result in an aggressive selloff and expose the pair to a flooring between 9.6878-9.7000 (yellow dotted traces).

USD/SEK – Daily Chart

Chart showing USD/SEK

USD/SEK chart created utilizing TradingView

USD/NOK Technical Analysis

USD/NOK seems to be coming nearer to finishing a bearish Double Top reversal sample after it did not meaningfully break previous resistance at 9.1648. This additionally comes as a short-term rising help channel was damaged amid the formation of the second try and breach resistance. Looking forward, USD/NOK might speed up downward till its hits a key help zone between Eight.8850-Eight.9100.

USD/NOK – Daily Chart

Chart showing USD/NOK


— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the feedback part beneath or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

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